‘Digging with a needle’: Generals stall peace as Sudan’s el-Obeid burns

What Happened

El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan and host to the Sudanese Armed Forces' 5th Infantry Division, is under a months-long siege by the Rapid Support Forces, with escalating drone strikes targeting the city. The siege threatens hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians sheltering there, prompting 38 international NGOs, the UN, and Qatar to warn of potential mass atrocities similar to those seen in el-Fasher. The city’s strategic value as the gateway between Khartoum and Darfur makes it a critical flashpoint in the war. US-led ceasefire efforts, spearheaded by adviser Massad Boulos, have stalled. SAF commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan rejected unconditional truces, vowing to continue operations with the precision of “digging with a needle” until the RSF is dismantled. Analyst Fathi Abu Ammar accused the SAF of using civilians as human shields and obstructing peace, while journalist Yousef Abdel Mannan blamed the RSF for widespread atrocities, including a drone attack on a girls’ school in el-Obeid. Former US diplomat David Shinn stated that both sides seek outright victory, sustained by foreign arms: the UAE backs the RSF, and Egypt and Saudi Arabia support the SAF, transforming the conflict into a proxy war.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

El-Obeid’s capture would sever the last major SAF supply route between Khartoum and Darfur, potentially opening the entire region to RSF control and deepening Sudan’s fragmentation. The siege exemplifies how foreign-supplied drones and other weapons prolong the conflict, while the international community’s inability to halt external military support perpetuates a stalemate that weaponizes civilian suffering.

Watch For

Indicators of an imminent RSF ground assault on el-Obeid; further drone strikes on civilian infrastructure; whether US-mediated talks produce any SAF–RSF engagement; signs of changing external arms flows from the UAE, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia; and humanitarian alerts as food and medical supplies dwindle under siege.