Sudan: Fears of atrocities as RSF surrounds key city

What Happened

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are deploying increasing numbers of troops around el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, which has been under control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since February 2025. The UN Security Council, several European countries, and the United States have warned of 'the imminent risk of mass atrocities' as the RSF appears to be preparing a ground offensive to retake the strategically important city. El-Obeid sits at the crossroads between central Sudan, Khartoum, and the western Darfur region, hosts a major SAF military base and airfield, and is a key logistical hub. Researchers note that an RSF takeover would provide a forward operating base for drone operations, especially as the rainy season starting in July reduces drone accuracy. Warnings explicitly reference the siege of el-Fasher, where RSF fighters killed an estimated 6,000 people over three days in October 2025, and call for sanctions on RSF leadership and its alleged foreign backers.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

El-Obeid's location as a logistical crossroads and its military infrastructure make it a strategic prize that could shift the balance of control between RSF and SAF. Its fall would give the RSF a forward base for drone strikes deeper into SAF-held territory, especially as the rainy season degrades drone performance. The city also has a large civilian population, and given the RSF's record of mass killings—most recently in el-Fasher—there is a high risk of atrocities. The conflict has already caused the world's largest displacement crisis, and a new offensive would deepen civilian suffering.

Watch For

Signs of an RSF ground offensive as the July rainy season begins; international diplomatic moves, including potential new sanctions by the US, EU, or UN against RSF leaders or the UAE; UN Security Council statements and humanitarian alerts; SAF reinforcement deployments to el-Obeid; and patterns of pre-attack civilian displacement from the city.