Could the US take control of Iran’s southern islands?

What Happened

US forces struck Iran's Qeshm, Kish, and Abu Musa islands, as well as the port city of Bandar Abbas, intensifying an air campaign against Iranian coastal infrastructure. The strikes followed revelations that the US Department of Defence had drawn up plans for ground raids on Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran's crude oil exports pass, though a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June temporarily reduced speculation. US President Donald Trump revived the question of territorial seizure in a Fox News interview, refusing to rule it out, while military analysts cautioned that any occupation would be militarily feasible but strategically costly, risking continuous attrition and political backlash.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

A US seizure of Iranian islands would dramatically escalate an already hot conflict, directly threatening the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil flows. It would risk transforming a limited air campaign into an open-ended occupation, exposing US troops to sustained Iranian reprisals and potentially drawing in regional actors. The move would also hand Iran a propaganda victory by casting the US as an occupying power, while imposing a heavy political toll on the Trump administration, particularly from its isolationist base.

Watch For

Monitor for US amphibious force movements in the Gulf, any Pentagon clarification or denial of seizure plans, and statements from IRGC commanders threatening retaliation. Watch for breakdown of the 17 June US-Iran memorandum of understanding and its impact on de-escalation. Any Iranian missile or drone activity near US naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz could signal preparation for a broader conflict. Also, track domestic US political reactions, especially from the Trump base, which may constrain military options.