Could Iran become America's next 'forever war?'

What Happened

As of July 23, 2026, the truce between the United States and Iran is effectively dead, with daily exchanges of air raids, drone attacks, and missile launches resuming. Washington has intensified airstrikes on targets across Iran, including infrastructure such as railways and port facilities, while Tehran continues to attack U.S. positions and regional allies, striking sites in Gulf countries and disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have threatened Saudi Arabia's maritime trade routes, expanding the conflict's geographical scope. Diplomatic efforts stalled after Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni traveled to Pakistan in an attempt to revive talks, but U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the U.S. had 'no interest in meeting.' Analysts from the Stimson Center and Sibylline warn that the conflict is evolving into a war of attrition, with no clear path to de-escalation, as each side's residual capacities allow continued disruption and strikes.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The conflict risks becoming an open-ended 'forever war' comparable to past U.S. interventions, with cycles of air strikes and no lasting political settlement. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas once passed, threatens global energy markets and economic stability. The involvement of Houthis in threatening Saudi routes widens the conflict, potentially drawing in GCC states and exacerbating regional instability. Shifting U.S. objectives—from regime change and nuclear program elimination to a focus on reopening the strait—echo unresolved earlier campaigns and raise concerns about mission creep without a clear exit strategy.

Watch For

Monitor diplomatic backchannels, particularly via Pakistan and Oman, for any resumption of talks or further rejection. Watch for escalation if U.S. strikes hit Iranian nuclear or energy infrastructure, triggering Iranian retaliation against Gulf or Levant targets. Track shipping insurance rates and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as an indicator of disruption levels. Observe Houthi attacks on Saudi maritime routes for signs of a wider regional conflict. Pay attention to any new U.S. statements refining war aims or signaling potential off-ramps.