As Strait of Hormuz transit drops, Trump again says US has ‘control’

What Happened

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz has declined to eight vessels on Tuesday, a significant reduction from the pre-war average of 130 to 140 ships, according to Kpler data. This decrease follows the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began on February 28. While United States President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. maintains total control over the waterway and has established a blockade of Iranian ports, Iran continues to assert influence, conditioning the resumption of full traffic on the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions. Recent military activity includes a U.S. Navy helicopter strike on a Panama-flagged cargo vessel on Tuesday, while the Houthis reportedly killed six people in an attack on an Egyptian-owned ship in the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant risk to global energy supplies and regional stability. Despite official U.S. claims of control and near-normal oil export volumes, the sharp decline in vessel transits and the emergence of new fronts, such as Houthi activity in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, indicate that the conflict remains active and capable of causing severe economic and security volatility.

Watch For

Monitor the outcome of ongoing diplomatic efforts by Pakistan to re-engage Iran and the U.S. in peace talks, as well as any further fluctuations in daily vessel transit data provided by Kpler. Additionally, observe whether the U.S. administration adjusts its strategic posture regarding the blockade ahead of the November midterm elections, given the domestic political pressure surrounding the conflict.