As Iran and US near a deal, Tehran remembers another recent bloody conflict

What Happened

Iranian authorities are marking the anniversary of a 12-day conflict with Israel that occurred in June 2025, known as Operation Rising Lion, while simultaneously negotiating a potential peace agreement with the United States to conclude a separate, ongoing war. According to Iranian government figures, the current conflict has resulted in 3,468 deaths, including the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, maintain that the state has successfully resisted US demands regarding nuclear enrichment and has effectively disrupted global energy markets by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The potential agreement represents a critical shift in the regional security architecture, as it seeks to transition from a 60-day ceasefire to a comprehensive peace deal following a year of intense military exchanges. The outcome of these negotiations will determine the future of Iran's nuclear program, the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential release of frozen Iranian assets, all of which carry significant implications for global energy markets and regional stability.

Watch For

Monitor the potential finalization of an interim memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which could occur within the next 24 to 48 hours. Additionally, observe the state funeral proceedings for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Mashhad, scheduled for the second week of July, and any internal political fallout from the Paydari faction regarding the specific terms of the proposed agreement.