Analysis: Turkey emerges unscathed from the Iran war

What Happened

In late February, US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iran, sidelining Turkish attempts to prevent the war. After three months of conflict, Washington and Tehran reached a memorandum of understanding on Sunday, establishing a 60-day ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had blocked. Turkish officials, speaking to Middle East Eye, cautioned that the deal is only a first step, with complex negotiations ahead on the nuclear file and other issues. During the war, Iran fired four ballistic missiles into Turkey, possibly targeting Incirlik Air Base and Kurecik Radar Base; no civilian areas were hit, preventing Turkish retaliation. Turkey secured the deployment of US, German, and Italian anti-ballistic missile systems and signed arms contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars with Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia for air defence systems. Ankara also used its influence with Washington to forestall an Israeli-backed plan for a Kurdish insurgency in western Iran, citing risks to its own talks with the PKK.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Turkey's ability to emerge from the Iran war without major damage underscores its strategic positioning and diplomatic agility. By preventing a Kurdish insurgency, Ankara avoided a direct security threat on its border, while Iranian missile strikes on Turkish soil paradoxically strengthened NATO solidarity and accelerated arms deals with Gulf states, shifting regional perceptions of secure investment hubs. The war tested Turkey's balancing act between its Western alliances and ties with Tehran, and its role in facilitating the ceasefire highlights its indispensability in regional crisis management. However, the fragile truce leaves open the risk of renewed conflict, especially if Israel acts to derail negotiations, with potential consequences for energy markets and Turkish inflation.

Watch For

Monitor the 60-day US-Iran negotiation window for a final nuclear deal; any Israeli moves—military or diplomatic—to undermine the ceasefire; the status of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and its impact on oil prices and Turkey's energy bill; potential Turkish retaliation if future Iranian attacks cause civilian casualties; and progress on Turkish-Gulf joint investment in long-range air defence infrastructure.