Myanmar’s Broken State— junta Rule, Resistance Gains, and a Fragmented Civil War

Myanmar’s civil war has moved beyond protest and repression into a fragmented struggle over territory, legitimacy, and the future of the state.

Since the February 1, 2021 coup, the military has faced resistance from the National Unity Government, local defense forces, and powerful Ethnic Armed Organizations. The balance shifted sharply after Operation 1027, when coordinated ethnic armed offensives exposed the junta’s vulnerability across key borderlands.

Yet the junta’s territorial losses have not ended its capacity for violence. Airstrikes, artillery, forced conscription, village burnings, arrests, and election theater remain central tools of survival.

The conflict matters because Myanmar now carries several overlapping risks:

• State fragmentation: Large areas are governed by resistance groups, ethnic authorities, military commands, or criminal networks.
• Humanitarian collapse: Displacement, aid restrictions, health-system breakdown, and the 2025 earthquake have compounded civilian suffering.
• Rohingya vulnerability: Stateless Rohingya communities remain exposed to persecution, forced recruitment, and displacement.
• Regional crime: Border zones have become hubs for scams, trafficking, narcotics, and illicit extraction.
• Geopolitical competition: China, Russia, ASEAN, and Western governments are all involved, but none has produced a decisive diplomatic path.

Myanmar’s conflict is rooted in colonial-era divisions, post-independence failures, military dominance, and unresolved ethnic demands for federalism and self-determination.

British colonial rule governed the Burman-majority plains and ethnic frontier areas separately, creating political divisions that carried into independence.

Post-Independence and the Praetorian Pivot

Burma gained independence from the United Kingdom on January 4, 1948.

The new state fractured almost immediately.

The government failed to fully honor the 1947 Panglong Agreement, which had promised autonomy and equality to ethnic minorities.

Several groups launched insurgencies, including:

• The Communist Party of Burma
• The Karen National Union
• Other ethnic armed movements

This created one of the world’s longest-running civil wars.

In 1962, General Ne Win seized power in a military coup, claiming the army had to prevent national disintegration.

He established an isolationist one-party state under the Burmese Way to Socialism.

The military prioritized Bamar identity, centralized rule, and national unity under army control, while suppressing ethnic autonomy and democratic opposition.

In 1982, a citizenship law effectively stripped the Rohingya of citizenship rights, deepening their statelessness and vulnerability.

The 8888 Uprising and the SLORC Era

Decades of economic mismanagement and authoritarian rule culminated in nationwide protests in 1988.

The protest movement peaked on August 8, 1988, becoming known as the 8888 Uprising.

The military crushed the uprising, killing thousands of people, and established a new junta called the State Law and Order Restoration Council.

In 1990, the junta held general elections.

The National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won in a landslide.

The military ignored the result, placed Suu Kyi under house arrest, and continued ruling by force.

It later drafted the 2008 Constitution, which embedded military power into Myanmar’s political system by reserving parliamentary seats for the military and giving it control over key ministries.

The Hybrid Decade and Rohingya Genocide

Beginning in 2011, Myanmar entered a controlled transition toward what the military called a “discipline-flourishing democracy.”

The 2015 elections brought the NLD to power, and Aung San Suu Kyi became State Counsellor.

Despite political liberalization, the military retained major constitutional powers.

In 2016 and 2017, the military launched so-called clearance operations against Rohingya communities in Rakhine State after militant attacks.

The campaign involved:

• Mass killings
• Sexual violence
• Village burnings
• Forced displacement
• Destruction of Rohingya communities

More than 700,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh.

The United Nations described the campaign as a textbook example of ethnic cleansing and warned of possible genocide.

Efforts to resolve Myanmar’s conflicts historically centered on ceasefires between the military and ethnic armed organizations.

The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement

In October 2015, eight ethnic armed organizations signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with the government.

The agreement was intended to create a framework for political dialogue, federal reform, and an end to decades of armed conflict.

However, the NCA was limited from the beginning.

Several of the largest and most active ethnic armed organizations did not sign.

This meant the agreement never covered the full conflict landscape.

Collapse of the NCA Framework

Peace conferences held during the civilian-led period struggled to address core ethnic demands, including:

• Federalism
• Self-determination
• Security-sector reform
• Resource control
• Equal political representation
• Military withdrawal from politics

The 2021 coup effectively destroyed the NCA framework.

After the coup, the conflict was no longer limited to ethnic peripheries. Resistance spread into the Bamar heartland, creating a nationwide revolutionary war against military rule.

The Federal Democracy Charter

In place of the old ceasefire model, the National Unity Government and allied ethnic actors developed the Federal Democracy Charter.

The charter calls for:

• Abolition of the 2008 Constitution
• Removal of the military from politics
• Establishment of a federal democratic union
• Equality among ethnic nationalities
• Transitional justice for military atrocities
• Civilian control of the armed forces

However, resistance unity remains incomplete.

Different ethnic armed organizations, local defense forces, and political actors have competing visions of federalism, resource control, military command, and future governance.

The conflict landscape in 2026 is defined by a fragmented state, a desperate military junta, a militarily effective but politically divided resistance, and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

The Military Junta Front

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s State Administration Council has lost significant ground but retains control over the central Bamar heartland and several major urban centers.

Facing casualties, defections, and manpower shortages, the junta activated a mandatory conscription law in February 2024.

This forced recruitment drive affected tens of thousands of young people and contributed to a mass exodus of citizens fleeing the draft.

Rohingya men were also reportedly forced into military service despite the state having long denied the Rohingya full citizenship rights.

To simulate stability, the junta staged tightly controlled elections between late 2025 and early 2026 in areas it could secure.

In April 2026, a proxy parliament elected Min Aung Hlaing as President.

The junta later moved Aung San Suu Kyi from military prison to house arrest, a move widely viewed as an attempt to soften international pressure and divide opposition forces.

Resistance Forces and Operation 1027

The anti-junta resistance is led by a loose network of actors, including:

• The National Unity Government
• The People’s Defence Force
• Local defense forces
• Ethnic armed organizations
• Civil disobedience networks
• Underground political organizers

In October 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State.

The alliance includes:

• The Arakan Army
• The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
• The Ta’ang National Liberation Army

Operation 1027 shifted the momentum of the war.

Resistance forces captured major strategic assets, including:

• Border crossings with China
• Towns in northern Shan State
• The Kokang Self-Administered Zone
• The Northeastern Regional Military Command in Lashio
• Key routes and military positions

In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army drove the military out of most townships and captured the Western Command by December 2024.

Despite these gains, the resistance faces structural weaknesses.

The NUG lacks full territorial control and operates partly in exile, while major ethnic armed organizations maintain independent command structures.

This fragmentation limits the formation of a unified federal army.

Diplomatic Front

Diplomatic efforts remain paralyzed.

ASEAN adopted the Five-Point Consensus in 2021, but the framework has failed to stop the violence.

The junta has repeatedly ignored or manipulated regional diplomacy, while ASEAN’s rotating envoy system lacks enforcement power.

China plays a dual role.

Beijing protects its strategic and economic interests, maintains ties with the junta, and also communicates with ethnic armed groups near the Chinese border.

China has pushed for stability in border areas, especially where cyber-scam networks and criminal compounds threaten Chinese citizens.

It brokered the temporary Haigeng Ceasefire in early 2024, but the ceasefire quickly collapsed.

Western governments, including the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom, continue targeted sanctions against junta leaders, military-linked companies, and regime revenue sources.

However, direct military support for the NUG remains absent.

Humanitarian Impact

The humanitarian situation has become a collapse of public safety, healthcare, livelihoods, and basic services.

Reported conditions as of May 2026 include:

• 16.2 million people requiring urgent humanitarian assistance
• Roughly 3.6 to 4 million internally displaced persons
• More than 5,000 civilian deaths recorded from military crackdowns since 2021
• Total conflict fatalities estimated above 96,000 by monitors
• Severe food insecurity affecting millions
• Large-scale destruction of homes and public infrastructure
• Repeated airstrikes on civilian areas
• Attacks on healthcare facilities
• Restricted humanitarian access
• Displacement worsened by the March 2025 earthquake

The earthquake severely compounded the crisis.

It destroyed more than 24,000 homes, damaged 132 health facilities, and left millions of tonnes of debris.

Myanmar’s healthcare system has been devastated by both war and disaster.

The World Health Organization has verified more than 1,800 attacks on healthcare facilities since the coup.

A December 2025 airstrike reportedly destroyed Mrauk-U General Hospital, underscoring the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure.

Economic Impact

Myanmar’s post-coup economy is in freefall.

Key reported effects include:

• GDP contracting by nearly 20% in 2021
• Continued economic contraction into FY2025/26
• More than 80% of the population living below the poverty line
• More than 14 million people facing acute food insecurity
• Currency instability
• Banking disruption
• Collapse of formal employment
• Expansion of illicit economies
• Severe damage to agricultural livelihoods and transport routes

The collapse of the formal economy has accelerated illegal activity.

Border regions have become hubs for:

• Rare earth mining
• Narcotics
• Timber smuggling
• Human trafficking
• Cyber-scam operations
• Informal taxation by armed groups

Illegal rare earth mining has expanded especially along the Chinese border in Kachin and Shan states.

This has caused severe pollution of rivers, farmland, and local ecosystems.

Geopolitical Impact

The conflict has become a volatile flashpoint in Southeast Asia.

Major geopolitical effects include:

• Large refugee burdens on Bangladesh, India, and Thailand
• Continued insecurity for Rohingya refugees
• Expansion of cyber-scam networks across border regions
• Increased Chinese involvement in border security and diplomacy
• Russian arms and diplomatic support for the junta
• ASEAN diplomatic paralysis
• Western sanctions and non-recognition of the junta
• Reduced development aid and shrinking humanitarian access
• Growing risk of state fragmentation

The conflict also affects regional supply chains and border economies.

China, India, and Thailand all have direct security and economic interests in Myanmar, but none has been able to produce a stable settlement.

The Myanmar crisis is not only a fight over who governs the country.

It is a deeper struggle over:

• Federalism
• Ethnic self-determination
• Military dictatorship
• Democratic restoration
• Human rights
• Transitional justice
• Rohingya accountability
• Natural resources
• Border economies
• Transnational crime
• Regional stability

The central danger is the balkanization of the state.

The junta no longer has the power to govern the entire country, but it retains the airpower and artillery capacity to destroy towns, hospitals, roads, schools, and civilian infrastructure.

At the same time, the resistance has achieved major battlefield gains but remains divided by geography, ethnicity, command structures, and competing visions of federalism.

Without a credible political settlement that removes the military from politics and addresses long-standing ethnic inequalities, Myanmar risks remaining a fragmented and violent state for years.