Lebanon’s Double Crisis— war With Israel and the Battle Over Hezbollah’s Weapons

Lebanon is facing a war on two levels. One is the visible conflict with Israel in the south. The other is a deeper internal struggle over whether the Lebanese state can regain authority from armed actors, collapsing institutions, and foreign-backed power networks.

After the fragile November 2024 ceasefire broke down, Hezbollah’s escalation and Israel’s Operation Eternal Darkness pushed Lebanon into a new phase of destruction, displacement, and strategic uncertainty.

But the military front is only half the story. Lebanon entered this war already weakened by banking collapse, public-sector failure, mass poverty, the legacy of the Beirut port explosion, and years of political paralysis.

The conflict matters because it ties Lebanon’s survival to several unresolved questions:

• Sovereignty: Can the Lebanese Armed Forces become the only legitimate armed authority in the south?
• Hezbollah’s role: Can Lebanon disarm or contain a militia that is also a political party, social force, and Iranian ally?
• UNSCR 1701: Can international peacekeeping rules be enforced after years of partial implementation?
• Economic fragility: War is hitting a country whose financial system and public services were already broken.
• Regional escalation: Lebanon remains a pressure point in the broader Iran-Israel-U.S. confrontation.

Lebanon’s instability is rooted in its fragile sectarian power-sharing system, regional vulnerability, and long history of foreign intervention.

The Confessional System and the Civil War

Lebanon gained independence from France in 1943.

Its political system was shaped by the National Pact, an unwritten agreement that distributed power among religious communities based on a 1932 census.

The arrangement gave:

• The presidency to a Maronite Christian
• The premiership to a Sunni Muslim
• The speakership of parliament to a Shia Muslim
• A parliamentary advantage to Christians under the original 6:5 ratio

This sectarian balance became increasingly unstable as Lebanon’s demographics shifted and regional conflicts spilled into the country.

The arrival of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees after the 1948 and 1967 Arab-Israeli wars further transformed Lebanon’s political landscape.

The Palestine Liberation Organization established a heavily armed presence in southern Lebanon and launched attacks on Israel. Israel responded with repeated strikes and incursions.

Tensions between Christian militias, Palestinian armed groups, Lebanese Muslim factions, and leftist coalitions escalated into the Lebanese Civil War in 1975.

The war lasted until 1990 and killed an estimated 150,000 people.

Israeli Invasions and the Rise of Hezbollah

Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982.

The 1982 invasion aimed to expel the PLO from Lebanon. It forced the PLO leadership to relocate to Tunisia but also helped create the conditions for Hezbollah’s rise.

Hezbollah emerged as a Shia resistance movement backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Its original mission was to resist Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon. Over time, it became both a military organization and a major Lebanese political force.

The Taif Agreement and the Post-War Order

The Taif Agreement of 1989 ended the Lebanese Civil War.

It restructured Lebanon’s political system by creating equal 50:50 Christian-Muslim representation in parliament and calling for the disarmament of militias.

However, Hezbollah was allowed to retain its weapons under Syrian tutelage, justifying its arsenal as necessary for resistance against Israel’s continued occupation of southern Lebanon.

After Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah claimed victory and strengthened its domestic legitimacy.

The 2006 War and UNSCR 1701

In July 2006, a Hezbollah cross-border raid triggered a 34-day war with Israel.

The conflict ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for:

• A cessation of hostilities
• The deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon
• A strengthened UNIFIL presence
• No armed groups south of the Litani River except the Lebanese state and UNIFIL
• The disarmament of non-state armed groups

The resolution was never fully implemented.

Hezbollah retained and expanded its arsenal, while Lebanon remained unable to establish full state authority over its southern territory.

By 2019, Lebanon’s post-war political and economic model had collapsed.

The financial system had long depended on unsustainable borrowing, high interest rates, remittances, and confidence in the banking sector. Critics described the model as a state-sponsored Ponzi scheme.

On October 17, 2019, nationwide protests erupted after proposed taxes triggered public anger.

The protests quickly expanded into a broader movement against:

• Corruption
• Sectarian politics
• Banking restrictions
• Austerity
• Economic mismanagement
• Political impunity

The collapse produced catastrophic consequences.

The Lebanese pound lost roughly 97% of its value. Citizens’ savings were trapped or wiped out. Banks became largely insolvent. State institutions were paralyzed.

The crisis was compounded by the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, caused by improperly stored ammonium nitrate. The blast killed over 200 people, injured thousands, devastated parts of the capital, and caused billions of dollars in damage.

Throughout this period, Hezbollah’s military and political dominance further complicated state reform.

Operating as a parallel power structure, Hezbollah participated in regional conflicts, especially the Syrian Civil War, while blocking or weakening reforms required for international financial assistance.

The current crisis is defined by full-scale war, economic collapse, humanitarian emergency, and a historic diplomatic gamble by the Lebanese government.

The 2026 War and Operation Eternal Darkness

After the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, Hezbollah began launching daily attacks on northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas.

This led to a destructive Israeli invasion of Lebanon in late 2024, followed by a fragile ceasefire in November 2024.

The ceasefire collapsed entirely on March 2, 2026, after Hezbollah launched massive rocket barrages into Israel in response to the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by U.S. and Israeli forces.

Israel responded with Operation Eternal Darkness.

The campaign included:

• Intensive airstrikes
• A ground invasion of southern Lebanon
• Siege operations around towns such as Bint Jbeil
• Destruction of bridges and transport routes across the Litani River
• Strikes on suspected Hezbollah supply lines
• Efforts to create an indefinite security buffer up to the Litani River

Israel framed the operation as necessary to remove Hezbollah’s threat from its northern border.

Hezbollah framed its response as resistance against Israeli occupation and retaliation for the attack on Iran’s leadership.

Humanitarian Crisis

The humanitarian toll is staggering.

By late April 2026, reported impacts included:

• At least 2,618 people killed
• At least 8,094 people injured
• More than 1.2 million people displaced
• Severe damage to homes, roads, bridges, farms, and public infrastructure
• Food insecurity affecting approximately 1.24 million people
• Heavy impact on southern governorates
• UNIFIL peacekeepers killed and injured amid fighting

The war has struck a country already weakened by economic collapse, banking failure, public-sector dysfunction, and years of political paralysis.

For many Lebanese civilians, the crisis is not only a war emergency. It is the continuation of a state collapse that began years earlier.

The Diplomatic Front and Washington Peace Talks

Facing the risk of national destruction, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam initiated an unprecedented diplomatic push.

In April 2026, direct peace negotiations opened between Lebanon and Israel in Washington, D.C., mediated by the United States.

The Lebanese government’s stated goals include:

• A permanent ceasefire
• Deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces to the southern border
• Implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701
• Disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state armed groups
• Restoration of Lebanese state sovereignty
• Prevention of Lebanon becoming a battlefield for regional wars

A U.S.-brokered 10-day truce began on April 16 and was later extended.

Hezbollah rejects the talks, accusing the Lebanese government of betrayal and vowing to continue resistance against Israeli forces.

The talks therefore represent both an opportunity and a danger.

If successful, they could restore Lebanese state authority and reduce Iran’s influence. If they fail, Lebanon could face deeper fragmentation or renewed internal war.

Humanitarian Impact

The humanitarian crisis is severe and worsening.

Reported impacts include:

• More than 2,600 people killed
• More than 8,000 injured
• Over 1.2 million displaced
• Acute food insecurity affecting around 1.24 million people
• Destruction of homes and public infrastructure
• Damage to agricultural land and transport networks
• Heavy pressure on hospitals, shelters, and aid agencies
• UNIFIL personnel killed or injured amid fighting

Lebanon’s humanitarian emergency is especially dangerous because it is layered on top of economic collapse.

Many displaced families have limited savings, weak access to banking, poor public services, and few safe areas to relocate.

The southern governorates have suffered the most severe impact due to proximity to the Israeli military campaign and Hezbollah’s operational zones.

Economic Impact

The war has dramatically worsened Lebanon’s already catastrophic economic crisis.

Key reported effects include:

• The Lebanese pound losing roughly 97% of its value since 2019
• Banks remaining largely insolvent
• Destruction of homes, farms, roads, and bridges
• Damage to transport routes across the Litani River
• Disruption to domestic food production
• Rising fuel and fertilizer prices
• Further collapse of public services

By early 2026, severe disruption had reportedly contributed to sharp local price increases:

• Gasoline prices up by 41%
• Diesel prices up by 83%
• Urea fertilizer prices up by 50%

These shocks are devastating for a country where food insecurity, poverty, and institutional failure were already widespread before the latest war.

Geopolitical Impact

The conflict has major implications for Lebanon and the wider Middle East.

Major geopolitical effects include:

• A severe test of Iran’s Axis of Resistance
• A direct challenge to Hezbollah’s military dominance
• Increased U.S. diplomatic involvement
• Israeli efforts to reshape the northern border security environment
• Renewed pressure to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701
• Greater risk of internal Lebanese fragmentation
• Potential realignment of Lebanon toward Western and moderate Arab states

If the Lebanese government successfully disarms Hezbollah and secures a durable peace framework, it would mark a historic strategic shift.

It would weaken Iranian influence in the Levant and restore a degree of Lebanese state sovereignty.

However, the attempt to disarm Hezbollah also carries extreme risk. If the Lebanese Armed Forces fracture along sectarian lines or if Hezbollah chooses internal confrontation, Lebanon could slide toward another civil war.

The Lebanon conflict is not simply a border war.

It is a regional and structural crisis involving:

• State sovereignty
• Sectarian governance
• Militia power
• Iranian regional strategy
• Israeli border security
• U.S. diplomacy
• UN peacekeeping
• Economic collapse
• Civil war risk
• The future of the Lebanese state

The central danger is the dissolution of Lebanon as a unified sovereign entity.

If the Lebanese state cannot monopolize the use of force, enforce its borders, and prevent external actors from using its territory as a battlefield, the country risks permanent fragmentation or indefinite military occupation.

A successful peace framework and the disarmament of Hezbollah could radically reshape Lebanon’s future.

A failed process could push the country into deeper collapse.

That is why Lebanon remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the Middle East.