Will the US-Iran war and Hormuz deadlock last for months?

What Happened

The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran—which began on February 28—saw its June 17 truce collapse, prompting Iran to enforce a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil and LNG exports. In response, US Central Command redirected 48 commercial vessels, boarded two, and disabled two others as part of a strict naval blockade. US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with 'decapitation' and demanded total surrender or a comprehensive deal, while the US Treasury concurrently removed sanctions on three IRGC-linked airlines. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied direct US negotiations but confirmed two months of talks with Oman to establish a temporary 60-day safe transit route via Iranian and Omani territorial waters; Iran’s Trade Minister Seyed Mohammad Atabak has explored alternative container routes through Pakistan to bypass the blockade.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The standoff directly threatens the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and gas transited before the war, driving energy prices upward and destabilising international markets. The deadlock pits US demands for freedom of navigation against Iran’s strategic use of the waterway as negotiation leverage, with mixed US signals and looming US midterm elections complicating prospects for a durable agreement. The involvement of nonstate actors like the Houthis in the Red Sea adds a further multiplier to regional instability.

Watch For

Whether the Omani-mediated 60-day transit route is finalised; any renewal of hostilities if talks stall; US midterm elections in November that may shift Washington’s political calculus; Iran’s progress on alternative trade routes through Pakistan; and further US sanctions adjustments or military posturing that could signal intent.