Who has profited most from the war on Iran?

What Happened

Nearly four months after the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, disrupting global energy markets and triggering a surge in oil prices, the belligerents are now engaged in 60-day ceasefire talks in Switzerland. The memorandum of understanding establishes a framework for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and the future of the Strait of Hormuz. During the conflict, energy companies and defence contractors reported sharply higher profits. Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter profits rose 25 percent to $32.5bn, aided by its 1,200km East-West pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. BP’s Q1 profits more than doubled to $3.2bn, while Shell posted $6.9bn despite damage to its co-owned Pearl GTL plant in Qatar. TotalEnergies earned $5.4bn in adjusted net income, maintaining UAE production via the Fujairah Terminal. Rystad Energy’s analysis indicated these firms netted substantial cash-flow gains from elevated crude prices. On the defence side, executives from RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, L3Harris, and Honeywell met at the White House to ramp up weapons production. Boeing’s Q1 revenue climbed 14 percent to $22.2bn, and Northrop Grumman’s backlog reached a record $95.6bn. US President Donald Trump had earlier approved a $500bn defence funding increase, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth later requested an additional $200bn.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The conflict underscores how geopolitical shocks can create vast windfalls for energy producers and defence contractors while imposing costs on the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz’s centrality to oil and LNG transit meant that even limited disruptions sent prices to four-year highs, enriching companies with alternative export routes. Defence firms saw backlogs swell as Western governments rushed to replenish arsenals, reinforcing a model where prolonged instability drives sustained revenue growth. A lasting ceasefire could unwind these gains, but the episode highlights the financial incentives that may influence policy decisions in future crises.

Watch For

The outcome of the 60-day ceasefire and subsequent negotiations will be critical: a comprehensive deal could push oil prices below pre-war levels, eroding energy-sector profits. The pace of US defence spending approvals will determine whether contractors’ backlogs translate into sustained revenue. Additionally, the estimated year-long repair timeline for Shell’s damaged Pearl GTL Train 2 unit may affect LNG markets. Any IAEA findings on Iranian nuclear compliance and the trajectory of sanctions relief will further shape energy trade and regional stability.