What the Iran war has done to the world’s energy supply, in charts

What Happened

A Houthi attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured 309, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy said the 25th World Petroleum Council Energy Congress and the 17th International Energy Forum Ministerial, known as Riyadh Energy Week, opened in Riyadh on Sunday and run until Thursday. Italy is participating in the IEF ministerial by videolink, and Nigeria is sending a representative. The IEF brings together 68 countries accounting for more than 90 percent of global oil and gas supply and demand, including Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia. According to the article, the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy flows. Before the Iran war, about 27 percent of global seaborne oil trade and almost 20 percent of LNG trade transited the Strait of Hormuz. The article reports traffic through Bab al-Mandeb and the Suez Canal has fallen as the Iran war spilled over and Yemen’s civil war ramped up. Richard Matthews of Gibson Shipbrokers said this is the first major constriction of a chokepoint and that the Strait of Hormuz has no alternative maritime route.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz’s role as a chokepoint with no alternative maritime route amplifies any disruption; 27 percent of seaborne oil and 20 percent of LNG transited before the Iran war. Countries in Asia and Africa are heavily dependent: Eritrea and Madagascar source about 90 percent of oil from the Middle East, Pakistan 78 percent, Japan 77 percent, Kenya 77 percent; South Korea sources 31 percent of gas, India 29 percent, Pakistan 27 percent, Taiwan 26 percent. With the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1982 and commercial inventories shrinking, the buffer against further supply shocks is thin, keeping oil prices above $100 a barrel.

Watch For

Monitor Riyadh Energy Week through Thursday and the IEF ministerial on its sidelines, where 68 countries may signal supply or stock-release coordination. The IEA’s planned release of another 100 million barrels of crude and diesel, the impact of the Gulf of Mexico storm, and any further Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure or chokepoint disruptions will shape near-term energy markets.