What is Ukraine’s 40-day campaign against Russia and has it worked?

What Happened

The Ukrainian government is conducting a 40-day campaign of long-range strikes targeting Russian military infrastructure, oil refineries, and logistics hubs in both Russian-occupied territories and within Russia itself, including Moscow and St Petersburg. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, these operations have disabled 42.74% of Russia’s oil refining capacity as of 5 July, with strikes reported against facilities such as the Yaroslavl refinery and the Vysotsk seaport terminal. The campaign also includes high-profile attacks on Crimean military sites, including the Saki and Gvardeyskoye airfields.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The campaign represents a shift in Ukrainian strategy toward 'strategic coercion by attrition,' aiming to degrade Russia's war economy and force a political reckoning within the Russian leadership. By targeting major cities and critical energy infrastructure, Ukraine seeks to challenge the perception of the war as a distant event for the Russian population while simultaneously demonstrating operational initiative to international partners.

Watch For

Monitor the impact of fuel shortages on the Russian domestic market and potential shifts in Russian air defense deployments. Additionally, observe whether the reported US agreement to license Patriot production in Ukraine materializes into concrete industrial cooperation, as this would mark a significant escalation in Western military-technical support.