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centerDEVELOPINGWhat is the Amal Movement, Lebanon’s other Shia party?

As Hezbollah's future is unclear, what role can Amal, Lebanon's other major Shia party, play?.
Full BriefGenerated 1h ago
What Happened
On March 2, Hezbollah fired six rockets across the Israel–Lebanon border, claiming it was in response to the reported assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei two days earlier. Israel responded by intensifying its military operations, including strikes on Beirut, after a previous one-sided ceasefire agreed in November 2024 during which Israel committed approximately 10,000 violations. The Lebanese government—backed by two ministers from the Amal Movement—subsequently issued a ban on Hezbollah’s military activities. Despite the ban and the earlier 66-day Israeli assault that killed 4,000 people, including Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah has continued drone attacks and clashes with Israeli forces. Amal, led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, remains a key ally of Hezbollah but is seen as potentially strengthened in its institutional role as Hezbollah’s military capacity and regional standing face ongoing pressure.
Key Actors
- ·Hezbollah(Lebanese Shia armed and political group, backed by Iran)Fired rockets on March 2 in retaliation for the reported killing of Khamenei, continues drone attacks and clashes with Israel despite a Lebanese government ban; weakened by Israeli operations and leadership losses.
- ·Amal Movement(Lebanese Shia political party, led by Speaker Nabih Berri)Allied with Hezbollah; two of its ministers supported the cabinet decision to ban Hezbollah’s military activities; positioned to consolidate its role as the main institutional representative of the Shia community amid Hezbollah’s challenges.
- ·Lebanese Government(Administration headed by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam)Banned Hezbollah’s military activities after the March 2 escalation, a decision backed by Amal ministers; seeks to assert state authority but faces Hezbollah’s continued armed actions.
- ·Israel(State actor in conflict with Hezbollah)Conducted a 66-day assault killing 4,000, including Nasrallah; committed reported 10,000 ceasefire violations; intensified strikes on Beirut after Hezbollah’s rocket fire on March 2.
Why It Matters
The interplay between Amal and Hezbollah defines Shia political and military power in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s perceived weakening after Israeli operations and the loss of Nasrallah creates an opening for Amal to reassert itself as the primary institutional channel for the Shia community, potentially reshaping Lebanon’s internal balance and influencing the implementation of UNSCR 1701 and the contested ceasefire framework. Amal’s role as a conduit between Hezbollah and external actors also becomes more critical as US–Iran tensions and Israeli operations continue.
Watch For
Monitor whether Hezbollah’s military activities persist despite the government ban and how Amal navigates its alliance with Hezbollah while consolidating state influence. Watch for Nabih Berri’s health and succession planning, as his potential departure could alter Amal’s trajectory. The evolution of US–Iran negotiations and any further Israeli military escalation will directly affect both groups’ calculations. Also, observe the Lebanese cabinet’s next steps to enforce the ban and Hezbollah’s response.
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