What is Pickaxe Mountain, Iran's nuclear site which might be among Trump's next targets - explainer

What Happened

On July 13, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a military strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility during an interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show. The site, a deeply buried tunnel complex under a 1,600-meter peak, lies 2 km from the Natanz uranium enrichment complex in central Iran. Construction began in 2020 after a reported act of sabotage at Natanz, and the facility is intended for advanced centrifuge assembly. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) assesses, based on satellite imagery, that the facility is not yet operational but construction continues, with tunnel entrances hardened to resist bunker-busting weapons. Trump stated that the U.S. sees no activity there and that they would “probably give Pickaxe a shot relatively soon.” The threat escalates an already tense standoff, as the U.S. and Israel previously bombed the Natanz complex during wars on February 28 of an unspecified year and during a 12-day war the prior year, but Pickaxe Mountain was not targeted then. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted that Iran’s placement of sensitive facilities underground is part of a systematic pattern. ISIS says the depths exceed the reach of even the most powerful U.S. penetrating munitions, making it more suitable for ground attack or sabotage, though aerial vulnerabilities may exist. Iran has consistently denied seeking nuclear weapons, despite Western concerns.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The threat signals a possible new U.S. military campaign against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, raising the risk of a direct U.S.-Iran conflict with regional spillover. Pickaxe Mountain’s extreme hardening challenges conventional strike capabilities and could become a flashpoint for testing advanced munitions or special operations. The site’s potential role in rebuilding centrifuge manufacturing after previous strikes on Natanz makes it central to Iran’s nuclear latency, impacting both the non-proliferation regime and diplomatic backchannels. The exchange of threats in the Gulf adds to a cycle of escalation that undermines de-escalation efforts.

Watch For

Monitor U.S. military posture signals, including enhanced bunker-buster deployments or special forces activity near Iran. Watch for new satellite imagery releases by ISIS or other open-source analysts revealing construction progress or hardening measures at Pickaxe Mountain. Track Iranian diplomatic statements, potential retaliatory threats via proxies in the region, and any emergency IAEA Board of Governors meetings or reports on the Natanz/Pickaxe Mountain site status. July–August 2025 may bring further U.S. public ultimatums or clandestine operations.