Wednesday briefing: How Trump’s Iran gamble has produced a crisis reshaping the global order

What Happened

The United States has conducted military strikes against Iran for eleven consecutive nights, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. This campaign, designated 'Operation Epic Fury,' follows retaliatory strikes by Iran against US air bases and regional desalination infrastructure. The conflict, which began on 28 February with a joint US-Israel offensive, has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, halting shipments of oil, gas, and fertilizer. A 17 June memorandum of understanding intended to establish a 60-day negotiation period collapsed after Iran targeted three commercial tankers near Oman, leading President Donald Trump to declare the ceasefire void.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which 20% of global oil was transported prior to the war. The escalation threatens to trigger a wider regional crisis, with the Houthis threatening a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, and creates significant economic instability due to the disruption of global energy and fertilizer supply chains.

Watch For

Monitor the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding the future of the Strait of Hormuz, specifically whether Iran attempts to formalize control through the imposition of tolls. Additionally, observe potential shifts in US legislative support as the Secretary of Defense faces scrutiny over the $37.5 billion cost of the operation and the deaths of American service members.