‘We are vulnerable’: Kurds fear renewed attacks as US‑led coalition departs Iraq

What Happened

The US-led coalition against the Islamic State concluded its mission in Iraq on 30 September 2024, following a phased withdrawal of approximately 1,500 personnel from Erbil Air Base. Concurrent with this departure, Iranian drone strikes targeted an Iranian Kurdish opposition camp in Koya on 28 September and 30 September. The Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs reported that the Kurdistan Region has faced over 1,000 drone and ballistic missile attacks since 28 February, citing these incidents as evidence of the region's vulnerability following the coalition's exit.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The withdrawal of coalition forces removes a significant deterrent presence in the Kurdistan Region, which has become a frequent theater for Iranian drone and missile strikes. The transition highlights a growing security gap between the Kurdistan Regional Government's requirements for air defense and the Iraqi federal government's stated capacity to secure national airspace, potentially increasing the risk of further cross-border escalations.

Watch For

Monitor for further drone or missile strikes in the Kurdistan Region and the effectiveness of the Iraqi Air Force in intercepting such incursions. Additionally, observe the implementation of security coordination between the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs and the Iraqi federal government to determine if the promised protection against external threats materializes.