Vietnam taught America the limits of its power. Hormuz is teaching it again

What Happened

Seven months into the war that the article says began on 28 February 2026 between the United States and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping. On 22 September, only two commercial vessels crossed the strait, according to the article, despite the presence of US warships. The strait normally handles about one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply and one-fifth of globally traded liquefied natural gas. The article states Washington has cycled through three strategies—massive aerial bombardment, economic strangulation through a naval blockade, and direct tit-for-tat escalation—without restoring normal passage. Commercial insurers remain unwilling to risk tankers even under the watch of US naval forces.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The closure or near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts a critical global energy chokepoint, affecting oil and LNG markets worldwide. The article argues the standoff demonstrates the limits of US military coercion: overwhelming firepower and naval dominance have not produced the desired political outcome, echoing the Vietnam War's lesson that a weaker adversary can outlast US resolve. This has implications for US strategy in the Gulf, regional stability, and the credibility of military pressure as a tool against Iran.

Watch For

Watch for daily reports on the number of commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, any statements from Washington or Tehran about the blockade or a possible ceasefire, and shifts in insurance underwriting that might signal restored confidence. Also monitor whether the US shifts to a fourth strategy or escalates further, and any Iranian military or diplomatic response.