US stocks near record high, oil falls as Trump claims Iran talks under way

What Happened

On June 30, 2026, US President Donald Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran were under way, stating he wanted to give Tehran 'every last chance' to sign a deal before facing renewed strikes. Trump’s assertion followed his announcement the previous day that he had called off plans for the 'biggest attack since World War II' after discussions with Gulf leaders. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei denied any talks with Washington, saying Iran had no meetings planned with US officials. Baghaei stated that Iranian officials were currently negotiating with Oman solely on allowing ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and that broader US-Iran issues would need to be addressed in later stages. The conflicting signals prompted a nearly 5 percent drop in Brent crude prices before a partial recovery in Asian trading, while US stock indices rallied sharply, with the S&P 500 approaching its all-time high.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The contradictory messages highlight the fragility of US-Iran diplomacy and the risk of miscalculation amid ongoing military threats. Oil markets are acutely sensitive to any hint of progress or escalation, given Iran’s ability to disrupt Strait of Hormuz transits. The stock market rally suggests investors initially priced in reduced conflict risk, but the Iranian denial underscores that no direct engagement is confirmed, leaving room for rapid reversals in sentiment and energy prices.

Watch For

Official US clarification on the specific channel and status of talks; any Omani confirmation of a broader mediating role; renewed military threats or operational posturing by either side; Brent crude volatility and US stock futures reactions; and any IAEA developments that could alter the diplomatic timeline.