US says deal on reopening Hormuz close as Iran, Oman hold ‘positive’ talks

What Happened

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced progress in Oman-mediated negotiations with Iran over safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a deal to expand vessel transit could be close. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an agreement might be reached as early as 'today or tomorrow,' while Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described talks as 'positive,' focusing on establishing safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes. Outstanding issues include the mechanism for reopening the waterway, maritime service fees, and security arrangements, with Iran negotiating through Oman rather than directly with the US. The diplomatic push comes amid separate security incidents: an Indian cargo vessel sank after being struck near Yemeni waters, and the Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Arabia's Najran airport, disrupting operations.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil transit, and an agreement to ensure safe passage would reduce the risk of military confrontation, stabilize energy markets, and serve as a confidence-building step toward broader US-Iran negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and regional security. However, ongoing attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Saudi Arabia and near Yemen underscore the fragility of diplomatic progress and the multi-front nature of tensions.

Watch For

A possible agreement by the end of Wednesday, as indicated by US and Iranian sources. Monitor the specific terms, including whether Iran restricts passage in its territorial waters and guarantees safe transit only through Omani waters. Watch for Houthi attacks in Yemen and Saudi Arabia that could derail momentum, and note the upcoming US-Iran memorandum of understanding implementation and the Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome as parallel diplomatic tracks.