US-Saudi strikes test Iraq's balancing act between Riyadh and Tehran

What Happened

On 29 July, United States and Saudi Arabian forces conducted joint airstrikes on bases belonging to Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), killing at least 20 PMF members and four advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to Iraqi and Iranian media. The strikes, the first publicly joint action by Riyadh and Washington, were retaliation for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities launched from Iraqi territory. Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry described the operation as an act of self-defence and warned of further strikes if cross-border attacks resume. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias that includes PMF factions, vowed retaliation against the US and stated it may target Saudi Arabia ‘if circumstances require’, while giving Baghdad until 7 August to respond. The strikes have complicated Iraq’s internal efforts to disarm non-state armed groups by a 30 September deadline, with Kataeb Hezbollah’s secretary general asserting that the attacks reinforced the group’s commitment to retaining its weapons. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government, which recently signed 48 agreements with US firms during a Washington visit, faces pressure from both its Western and Gulf partners and from militias that have called for severing ties with Riyadh.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The strikes expose the fragility of Baghdad’s attempt to balance deepening ties with Washington and Riyadh against the presence of powerful Iran-aligned militias. They directly challenge Iraq’s disarmament timeline and could empower factions resisting state control over weapons, as seen from Kataeb Hezbollah’s hardening stance. The Saudi role opens a potential new front beyond Yemen, testing deterrence between Riyadh and Tehran’s network, and may force Iraq to choose between its security partnerships and its internal stability, all while the US–Iran diplomatic track remains uncertain.

Watch For

Monitor the 7 August deadline set by the IRI for Baghdad’s response; any retaliatory attacks by Iran-backed militias against US, Saudi, or other Gulf targets; whether Saudi Arabia conducts further strikes if cross-border drone attacks resume; progress on Iraq’s 30 September disarmament deadline and the PMF’s integration; and the trajectory of US–Iran negotiations, which could influence militia calculus.