US intensifies attacks on Iran as Tehran hits back at Gulf states

What Happened

The United States intensified military strikes on Iran, hitting targets near Tehran for the first time in the current round of fighting and striking other provinces on Thursday, according to Iranian state media. US Central Command also said it fired a Hellfire missile at a tanker approaching Kharg Island after it ignored warnings, as part of a reimposed naval blockade. Iranian authorities claimed the US attacks killed over 35 people and wounded more than 300, and Iran's foreign ministry accused the US of a 'barbaric attack' that forced the evacuation of a cancer hospital in south-west Iran, with 211 chemotherapy patients moved. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait, which host US bases. Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi reported an overnight drone attack on Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan that was intercepted, and Iraqi authorities suspended crude oil loading at all terminals after a drone crashed into an oil tanker in Basra without causing damage. Iran warned it could expand attacks, with military spokesperson Col Ebrahim Zolfaghari stating that 'all the infrastructure in the region will be crushed' and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz required US adherence to a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding signed last month and Iranian transit regulations. The strait, which Iran had essentially closed since the war's start, saw reduced traffic, with only nine ships navigating it on Wednesday, down from 13 on Tuesday.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Six days of consecutive US-Iran strikes risk igniting a full-scale regional war, directly undermining the 60-day interim peace deal signed last month. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of global oil and gas exports once flowed—has driven oil prices to $85 a barrel, with potential to reach $100, threatening global inflation and US midterm election prospects. The escalation blurs the lines between direct state-on-state conflict and proxy warfare, with Iran expanding its missile reach to Gulf states and Iraq, while US strikes target the Iranian heartland. The competing interpretations of the MoU over strait transit lanes deepen the deadlock, and India's warning to avoid deploying sailors there signals a broadening economic fallout.

Watch For

Whether the US follows through on threats to strike Iranian power plants, bridges, or nuclear facilities, and Iran's promised 'steel blows' in retaliation. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and any attempts by either side to force passage via their designated lanes. Diplomatic signals: Trump's claims of a willing Iranian partner versus Iranian officials' rejection of talks under military pressure. Reports from IAEA on any damage to Iranian nuclear sites. Impact on global oil benchmarks and potential emergency IEA stock releases. The US midterm election timeline as a driver for Trump to reopen the strait.