Ukraine war briefing: Poland’s Tusk heads to Kyiv after warning of Russian strikes on Ukrainian allies

What Happened

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia is planning hybrid strikes using drones or rockets against NATO countries on the eastern flank, aiming to weaken support for Ukraine. Tusk reported that a jet-powered drone exploded 4km from the Polish border on Thursday, prompting the temporary suspension of operations at Lublin and Rzeszow airports. Simultaneously, Russian forces conducted a large-scale aerial assault across Ukraine, with the Ukrainian Air Force reporting the destruction or suppression of 131 targets, including missiles and drones, across the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa regions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian security and intelligence services conducted retaliatory strikes against an oil refinery in Yaroslavl and a military airfield in the Rostov region, damaging multiple aircraft.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The reported shift toward hybrid threats against NATO members and the sustained targeting of Ukrainian energy and logistics infrastructure, such as the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi bridge, signal an escalation in Russia's efforts to isolate Ukraine economically and test the cohesion of the Western alliance. The disruption of grain transport routes and the threat to regional airspace increase the risk of direct spillover into neighboring countries.

Watch For

Monitor the implementation of the €3.3bn EU disbursement for Ukrainian military procurement scheduled for Friday and any further reports of aerial incursions into Polish or other NATO-member airspace. Additionally, observe the impact of the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi bridge damage on Ukrainian grain exports and the potential for further diplomatic friction regarding sanctions against Russia.