Ukraine war briefing: More than 2 million military casualties caused by Russia’s invasion, study finds

What Happened

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused more than 2 million military casualties since February 2022. CSIS said Russian forces suffered 400,000–450,000 fatalities out of 1.4 million total casualties (killed, wounded, or missing), while Ukrainian forces suffered 125,000–150,000 fatalities out of 525,000–625,000 casualties. The thinktank noted Russian fatalities are more than four times all US fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties has likely risen to about eight to one in the first half of 2025. Separately, Russia launched an intense overnight missile and drone attack on Kyiv on Thursday, killing at least eight people and injuring 56, according to Kyiv’s military administration chief Tymur Tkachenko. Strikes hit residential buildings and a hotel; a nine-storey apartment block partially collapsed. Russia’s defence ministry claimed the attack, along with strikes on Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk, retaliated for Ukrainian attacks on civil infrastructure. In other developments, Reuters reported Russia began seaborne petrol imports from India (at least 60,000 metric tons) to mitigate fuel shortages after Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure, though the claims could not immediately be verified. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv’s forces struck Russia’s Ufa oil refinery in Bashkortostan for the second time in a week. German prosecutors charged a Ukrainian national over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage; he was extradited from Italy in November 2025. Ukraine also announced a new framework allowing arms manufacturers to export products, levying 20–30% of proceeds for a state defence fund, with restrictions on critical goods.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The CSIS casualty data quantifies the war’s staggering human cost and the grossly asymmetric losses Russia has accepted, potentially informing policy debates on continued Western support for Ukraine. Russia’s massive strike on Kyiv—the worst since June—shows Moscow can still deliver significant urban blows despite battlefield attrition, while its resort to Indian petrol imports signals energy-sector strain from Ukrainian drone strikes. The Nord Stream sabotage charges reintroduce lingering questions about the attack’s authorship, and Ukraine’s arms export plan reflects Kyiv’s drive to domestically fund its expanding weapons production.

Watch For

Further assessments by ISW, UK MoD, or other observers on whether the casualty ratio claimed by CSIS persists in ongoing offensives. Monitor the frequency and scale of Russian missile/drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, as well as Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian refineries, which could affect Russia’s fuel supply and domestic stability. Follow the Nord Stream trial in Germany for evidence or new accusations, and track the implementation and revenue impact of Ukraine’s defence export levy.