Ukraine’s 40-day campaign has not brought the war closer to an end

What Happened

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 40-day campaign of intensified long-range missile and drone strikes against Russia concluded without achieving its stated aim of compelling Moscow to accept Ukraine's terms. The campaign, launched before the NATO Ankara summit in July, targeted Russian oil refineries, causing a fuel crisis, and later shifted to logistical hubs of the online retailer Wildberries in an attempt to disrupt associated businesses and banking. Russia responded with brutal strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, including Black Sea ports, major retailers Epicentr and Rozetka, petrol stations, and fuel trucks. The Russian military also continued its offensive on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration in northern Donetsk and expanded a 'security belt' along the northeastern border. Ukraine's air defences have been weakened by missile shortages, partly due to US actions against Iran, leaving the country vulnerable ahead of an expected harsh winter of Russian strikes on energy, sewage, and water systems. In a concurrent cabinet reshuffle, Zelenskyy dismissed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who had spearheaded the deep-strike campaign, and Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Taras Kachka, who co-authored anti-corruption reforms that would limit presidential control over law enforcement.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The failure of Ukraine's escalation campaign and the corresponding Russian retaliation reinforce the deadlocked war's destructive trajectory. Zelenskyy's dismissal of reformist officials and the architect of the deep-strike campaign suggests a possible pivot toward accepting a negotiated settlement largely on Putin's terms, as Ukraine faces catastrophic infrastructure degradation, eroding Western military support, and a winter of unpredictability. The moves also signal Zelenskyy's effort to consolidate power and neutralize impeachment risks ahead of any controversial peace deal.

Watch For

Look for concrete signals of Ukraine's willingness to negotiate, especially any public softening of Zelenskyy's maximalist positions. Monitor the impact of Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities' habitability as winter sets in, and whether international partners increase air defence shipments. Track the progress of the US Senate's sanctions bill and its fate in the House, as well as any further changes in US military aid policy. Observe Russian territorial advances along the northeastern 'security belt' and the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis.