Trump threatens more strikes as death toll in Iran rises to 18

What Happened

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes on Iran, saying Washington could hit Iran “anytime we want,” after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged their biggest barrage since July. The U.S. military struck cities and areas along Iran’s southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz, including a wedding party in Kuhestak in Sirik county; Iranian officials said at least 18 people were killed and 108 wounded, including two children, one a four-year-old killed in the Kuhestak strike that killed at least four. Iran retaliated with attacks on U.S. bases in Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two oil tankers struck mines and were disabled while attempting an unauthorised transit; Saudi shipping firm Bahri reported two Filipino sailors killed in an attack on their vessel earlier in the week. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) blacklisted 11 more ships for alleged noncompliance, after 45 were blacklisted the previous week. Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described the Kuhestak strike as a war crime.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges have escalated a six-month war that closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's traded oil passed before the conflict. The closure has driven Brent crude to about $95 a barrel, up more than 30 percent from the start of the war, and only 31 percent of Americans approve of the war according to an August Reuters/Ipsos poll. Iran's strategy, according to retired Pakistani Lieutenant-General Tariq Khan, is to make the war costly for Trump by leveraging the strait's closure and asymmetric attacks, while the U.S. faces an increasingly uncomfortable strategic position.

Watch For

Monitor whether the U.S. launches the additional strikes Trump threatened, and whether Iran continues to target vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Watch for the funeral for the four Kuhestak victims scheduled for Thursday, further updates on the death toll from Iranian officials, and any escalation in attacks on U.S. bases in Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan. Also track oil price movements and the impact on U.S. domestic politics ahead of November midterm elections.