Poland warns Russia planning ‘hybrid strikes’ against countries supporting Ukraine – as it happened

What Happened

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Polish parliament that intelligence assessments show Russian “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland” in the coming months. Tusk described the intelligence as “very consistent and convincing,” and warned that Poland will face “provocations ... far more dangerous than those we have faced so far.” He said Russia is expected to present any cross-border incidents as “accidental” in order to weaken Nato’s resolve to invoke Article 5, aiming to convince member states that Article 5 “is more theoretical than practical” and that “no one will want to die for Latvia or Lithuania.” Tusk did not identify which intelligence agencies produced the assessments; the Guardian noted that Poland’s security services minister Tomasz Siemoniak met CIA director John Ratcliffe last week, after Ratcliffe’s trip to Russia, and Polish defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz plans urgent talks in the US next week with US defence secretary Pete Hegseth.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Tusk’s warning points to a potential escalation in deniable Russian pressure on Nato’s eastern flank through low-signature drone or missile strikes. If such incidents occur and are presented as accidents, allies may debate whether to respond, creating divisions that could weaken deterrence at a time when Poland and Baltic states already face airspace incursions, sabotage arrests linked to Russian intelligence, and political flux in Sweden and Canada.

Watch For

Monitor whether Nato or individual member states issue formal statements on the alleged hybrid strike plans; watch for any drone or missile incidents near or inside Polish, Latvian, or Lithuanian territory, and how Russian officials characterise them. Track US-Poland defence talks next week between Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Pete Hegseth, and any Nato Article 4 or 5 consultations or intelligence disclosures from Polish, US, or allied agencies. Also watch whether Nato members on the eastern flank increase air defence or counter-drone deployments before winter.