Trump seeks ‘massive’ Belarus fertiliser deal amid Canada trade war

What Happened

President Donald Trump said on his Truth Social network that the United States is working on a “massive” deal to purchase potash from Belarus, stating the pricing would be “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada.” The announcement shifts US fertiliser sourcing away from Canada, its largest potash supplier, during an escalating trade dispute. According to the US Geological Survey, 79% of US potash imports in 2024 came from Canada, 11% from Russia and 4% from Belarus. The reported outreach follows a thaw in US-Belarus relations: last week Belarus freed 25 political prisoners while the United States lifted sanctions on two Belarusian companies. Belarusian exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called any deal with President Alexander Lukashenko “very risky,” saying income from potash goes to repression and support for Russia’s war machine.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The move signals a strategic US pivot toward Belarus, a close ally of Russia, while trade tensions with Canada intensify. It risks legitimising Lukashenko’s government and channelling revenue into an economy that opposition figures say supports Russia’s war in Ukraine and domestic repression. The deal also reshapes US fertiliser supply chains and could weaken allied cohesion by prioritising price over partnership with a NATO member.

Watch For

Monitor whether the Trump administration publishes the terms, volume, or price of any potash import agreement with Belarus, and whether the Treasury names the two Belarusian companies removed from sanctions. Watch for further Canadian trade retaliation and any additional Belarusian political prisoner releases or US sanctions relief. Also track opposition and congressional reactions that could constrain executive authority on Belarus trade.