Trump says war ‘can’t go much longer’ – what’s the latest on talks?

What Happened

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the war with Iran 'can't go much longer' and that negotiations are ongoing. However, Iran denied direct talks with the US, stating it is speaking solely to Oman about control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Fars news agency, citing an unnamed lawmaker, reported that an Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill to bar US, Israeli, and other 'hostile' vessels from transiting the strait. Simultaneously, Iran and Oman announced they had agreed on coordinates for shipping routes through the strait, a step Tehran claims puts a deal 'on the verge of being finalised'. Shipping data showed that only 33 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz between Monday and Thursday, down from 50 the previous week, as the waterway remains largely closed. The US has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The pattern of Trump threatening major attacks and then pulling back continued, with analysts warning that this cycle undermines the credibility of negotiations. An earlier June 17 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to reopen the strait collapsed due to vague wording and disputes over shipping routes, which led to Iran firing on ships using a US/Oman-approved route and a resumption of US attacks. Since those attacks ceased last week, the new Iran-Oman talks are seen as a precursor to broader peace negotiations.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, and its continued closure, coupled with a US naval blockade, has triggered a global energy crisis. The outcome of the Iran-Oman negotiations will determine whether shipping resumes and broader US-Iran peace talks can restart, impacting energy markets and regional security. Trump's pattern of threatened escalations followed by walk-backs has eroded diplomatic credibility, raising doubts about the viability of any future agreement.

Watch For

Monitor whether Iran and Oman finalize the shipping route deal in the coming days and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens to all traffic. Watch for any resumption of formal US-Iran negotiations, possibly through Oman, and whether Trump’s rhetoric shifts from military threats to diplomatic engagement. Additionally, note the progress of the Iranian bill to bar hostile vessels, which could escalate tensions if passed.