Trump says he will not attack Iran after midterms

What Happened

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said the United States will not attack Iran after the midterm elections, speaking at the Washington Reflecting Pool one day before voters go to the polls. Trump told an Axios interviewer: 'One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially. They have no money, no gasoline, and their people are getting very tired of it.' In a separate social media post, Trump wrote: 'Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!' His statements followed a warning by Tucker Carlson, viewed over 70 million times by Monday evening, alleging Trump was weighing a nuclear strike on Iran at the request of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Brent crude fell 7 percent to $104 per barrel on Monday after rallying in anticipation of possible US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran had been working with mediators to renew a truce with the US. Qatari mediators have shuttled between Doha and Iran, according to media reports and flight-tracking information. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, via IRNA: 'Consultations through mediators are very intensive. We have presented our conditions and proposals, and everything depends on the political rationality of Washington.' Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran has a seven-step proposal that could be implemented in two days, including a US end to the blockade on Iranian ports, Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a US waiver on Iranian oil sales, cancellation of new sanctions, and then talks on the nuclear file. The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in the spring and signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding that was never implemented; talks collapsed partly over the US refusing Iran control of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Trump's statement and Iran's overtures point to possible de-escalation ahead of the US midterm elections, with both sides signalling openness to a renewed truce that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks. The comments also appeared aimed at calming oil markets: Brent fell 7 percent to $104 per barrel on Monday, and Trump claimed the $10 drop was 'the biggest drop in oil history'. If a deal is reached, it could lift the blockade on Iranian ports, ease sanctions, and reduce the risk of Israeli or US strikes on Iran that had driven oil prices up.

Watch For

Watch for the outcome of the Tuesday US midterm elections and whether Trump's post-election posture shifts, given his earlier 'we will do something' remark. Monitor any formal US response to Iran's seven-step proposal, including whether Washington agrees to end the port blockade and grant oil-sale waivers, and whether Iran follows through on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Also track Qatari shuttle diplomacy between Doha and Tehran, further statements from Araghchi or Baghaei, and Brent price movements as indicators of whether the truce talks advance.