Trump's Iran strategy: Could this become a forever war?

What Happened

On September 3, 2026, US forces conducted a series of strikes against Iranian military targets, including air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities, and communications infrastructure. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated these actions are part of a strategy to prevent Iran from reconstituting its military presence in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iranian forces launched rockets and drones at US facilities in the region, with Jordan reporting the interception of 10 out of 13 ballistic missiles detected in its airspace.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The adoption of a 'mowing the grass' strategy—a term borrowed from Israeli security doctrine—marks a shift toward a cycle of attrition rather than a decisive military victory. Analysts warn that this approach risks an enduring low-intensity conflict that may inadvertently incentivize Iran to pursue nuclear weapons as a means of achieving lasting deterrence, while simultaneously failing to prevent the long-term reconstitution of Iranian military capabilities.

Watch For

Monitor for further retaliatory strikes by Iranian forces against US regional facilities and any evidence of Iranian efforts to accelerate nuclear development in response to the ongoing US intervention. Additionally, observe the impact of these strikes on global energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as the US attempts to maintain passage while Iran seeks to maintain a perception of danger.