Trump rules out new attack on Iran until after midterms as oil prices spike

What Happened

US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday that the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd," and said discussions with Iran were "productive." The statement followed Axios and The Atlantic reports that the Pentagon was preparing a resumption of high-intensity strikes on Iran or that Trump was weighing an attack before the elections. Middle East Eye reported that Brent crude was trading up 4.5 percent on Thursday amid those reports and confirmation that Iran had attacked a new vessel in the Gulf. One tanker was hit on Wednesday off the coast of Qatar in the Gulf, about 500km west of the Strait of Hormuz, and one was attacked off the coast of Oman outside the waterway. Kpler reported oil flows through Hormuz hit almost 90 percent of pre-war levels in late September, while US diesel prices rose 14 percent in the last month to around $6 per gallon. The wider regional war's focal point has shifted to Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and its allies are trying to roll back the Houthis after a Houthi offensive down the Red Sea coast last month. Saudi Arabia backs Yemen's internationally recognised government against the Houthis, which have received arms and training from Iran. This week the kingdom activated a new joint defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan; Middle East Eye reported Turkey would send air defence batteries and troops, and Pakistan told CNN it was sending weapons to help protect Saudi Arabia. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh killed at least three people on Wednesday, and Riyadh’s airport was hit again Thursday by at least two drones, with officials telling MEE at least one Saudi commercial aircraft was severely damaged. Lufthansa cancelled all flights to Riyadh until 16 October. The New York Times reported Pakistani warplanes were flying above Yemen striking Houthi targets; Islamabad denied this, saying it was providing only defensive support. Saudi Arabia blamed the Houthis for strikes on Mecca and Medina, which the group denied.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The pause in direct US-Iran hostilities before the midterms occurs against a backdrop of rising oil prices and tanker incidents in the Gulf, making energy costs a domestic political liability for Trump. At the same time, the centre of regional escalation has moved to Yemen, where Saudi Arabia is drawing Turkey and Pakistan into a defensive pact against the Houthis. That risks deepening involvement of new state actors in a conflict on a key maritime chokepoint, even as the US refuses to publicly fight the Houthis. Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and claims about holy cities add another volatile layer to an already multi-front standoff.

Watch For

Monitor whether the US refrains from striking Iran before November 3 as Trump stated, and whether reported Pentagon preparations lead to action immediately after the midterms. Watch for further Houthi drone or missile attacks on Saudi airports and Saudi-led coalition strikes in Yemen, as well as any clarification of Turkish and Pakistani military roles under the new defence pact. Lufthansa's flight suspension to Riyadh until 16 October is a concrete date to watch. Also track Brent crude pricing, Kpler data on Hormuz oil flows, and any additional tanker attacks attributed to Iran in the Gulf.