Trump leaning towards escalation with Iran, source tells 'Post'

What Happened

According to Israeli and American officials speaking on Sunday, US President Donald Trump is leaning toward escalating the US campaign against Iran. One official told The Jerusalem Post that, barring an unexpected development, 'the chances of a diplomatic solution is now virtually nonexistent,' and the question is only how much and when escalation will occur. Another official cautioned that Trump has reversed course at the last minute before, leaving his final position uncertain. Israeli assessments suggest Iran will refrain from attacking Israel unless the US significantly escalates its military operations against Tehran. Regarding possible Israeli participation, two Israeli officials outlined three scenarios: an Iranian attack on Israel, Israeli intelligence indicating Iran is preparing to launch missiles or drones, or a formal request from Trump. Separately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted that an imminent security situation could disrupt political events, referencing the Likud primaries and the possibility of an 'exceptional security situation' making it difficult to hold campaign events.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

A US decision to escalate against Iran would mark a sharp turn from diplomatic to military pressure, potentially drawing Israel into direct strikes. Such a move risks a cycle of retaliation involving Iran's regional proxies and could destabilize the broader Middle East, complicating ongoing tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea. It also tests the US-Israel coordination framework and may force Israel to quickly articulate its own rules of engagement with Iran.

Watch For

Immediate indicators include explicit statements from the White House or Pentagon regarding new operations against Iran, any formal US request for Israeli participation, and Iranian military posture changes. Domestically in Israel, watch for Netanyahu's scheduling of primaries or emergency consultations, as well as any leaks about Israeli intelligence on Iranian preparations. Diplomatic channels such as the Oman backchannel may also intensify.