To protect the Iran peace talks, will Trump finally restrain Netanyahu? | Mohamad Bazzi

What Happened

Vice President JD Vance publicly rebuked Israeli leaders on 18 June for attacking the Trump administration's interim Iran deal, emphasizing U.S. military support and warning against jeopardizing the ally. President Trump has escalated private and public criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly calling him 'fucking crazy' and insisting 'I call all the shots.' The U.S. and Iran began negotiations last week aimed at a 60-day comprehensive nuclear agreement, contingent on a ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, where Israel continues military operations. U.S. intelligence agencies warned Trump that Netanyahu is likely to sabotage a peace deal. Israel has occupied southern Lebanon and carried out mass-casualty strikes, such as the 8 April 'Eternal Darkness' operation that killed at least 350 people, despite multiple ceasefires. Iran has threatened to walk away and close the Strait of Hormuz unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The success of U.S.-Iran negotiations hinges on restraining Israel's military campaign in Lebanon. A collapse could reignite a direct U.S.-Iran conflict, disrupt a fifth of global oil transit, and undo the interim deal that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's willingness to impose limits on Netanyahu tests the durability of unconditional U.S. support for Israel and could reshape alliances in the Middle East.

Watch For

The 60-day deadline for the Iran nuclear deal; Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon and adherence to ceasefire terms; whether Trump leverages military aid as leverage; any Israeli escalations in Lebanon or beyond that could provoke an Iranian walkout.