The time is now : Investors gear up to enter Venezuela despite enormous risks

What Happened

At an energy investment conference in London, around 200 industry representatives gathered to discuss entering Venezuela's oil sector, eight months after the reported removal of Nicolás Maduro and the installation of acting President Delcy Rodríguez. Greig Gilbert, CEO of Apertura Energy, declared 'the time is now' for big-ticket investments, citing reforms that allow private companies to operate fields directly, hold larger stakes, and retain more profit, reversing PDVSA's former majority-stake requirement. The US has eased sanctions, enabling a sharp rise in Venezuelan crude exports: last month's 28 million barrels marked a 69% year-on-year increase, with more than half bound for US Gulf refineries. President Donald Trump claimed his administration has collected over $13 billion from selling Venezuelan oil, to be held in custodial accounts for eventual return. However, speakers and analysts warned of enormous risks, including crumbling infrastructure, a legacy of asset seizures (ExxonMobil's 2007 expropriation was cited), and the need for an estimated $50–100 billion in investment over five to ten years, with new projects unlikely to yield results for half a decade.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and the post-Maduro opening could redraw global energy flows, shifting exports from China toward US and European markets. The scale of required investment—$50–100 billion—and the strategic involvement of US firms tie Venezuelan reconstruction to US geopolitical interests, while testing the durability of pro-market reforms under a former Maduro loyalist. The outcome will influence regional migration, sanctions architectures, and the balance of influence among actors like China, India, and Russia.

Watch For

The 'Venezuela Energy Week' conference scheduled for October in Caracas will be a concrete test of investor appetite and the government’s ability to guarantee stable terms. Monitor whether further US sanctions rollbacks or formal licensing occur, whether the opposition or other political forces challenge Rodríguez’s reforms, and whether early movers like Apertura Energy commit capital. Also track export data and infrastructure rehabilitation milestones, especially any contracts awarded for upgrading refining or transport capacity.