The long-range drone war: Ukraine and Russia scramble for supremacy in the skies

What Happened

Ukrainian drone units, including the 413 Raid regiment and Unit 17 of the Special Operations Centre, have significantly increased the scale of long-range strikes against Russian military and economic infrastructure. Utilizing domestically produced FP-2 and Sych drones, these units target logistics hubs and refineries, such as the 20 September strike on the Moscow refinery. Simultaneously, Russian forces have upgraded their own capabilities by deploying jet-engined drones and continuing the use of Geran-2 (Shahed) systems to target Ukrainian territory.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The shift toward large-scale, long-range drone warfare has altered the conflict's attrition dynamics, with Ukraine leveraging deep strikes to disrupt Russian logistics and economic output, including a reported 7.7% decline in Russian crude oil production. This technological escalation forces both sides to adapt, moving from field-based operations to underground launch sites to mitigate the threat of counter-strikes.

Watch For

Monitor the operational impact of Russia’s transition to jet-engined drone technology and the ability of Ukrainian forces to scale their 'orchestra' strike model, which aims to launch up to 1,000 drones per night to overwhelm air defenses.