IRGC targeting bases to push US out of region before renewed Israel war, expert tells 'Post'

What Happened

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched retaliatory strikes on US-linked sites in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, following the United States’ renewal of strikes against IRGC targets in Iran on Tuesday, according to The Jerusalem Post. Military historian and analyst Tom Cooper told the Post that the IRGC’s decision to target American bases, assets, and allies—excluding Israel—is part of a strategy to knock the US out of the Middle East before any renewed war with Israel. Cooper said the attacks focus on the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf states, creating pressure through rising insurance costs and shipping risks for oil, gas, and fertilizer exports, while preserving the IRGC’s firepower for a possible Israeli attack. Cooper claimed Iran only needs to wait out US President Donald Trump’s patience, supplies, or presidency, and that Iran is forcing the US to exhaust strategic stocks of cruise missiles and interceptors, reducing the US capability for larger coordinated attacks. He cited a Pew Research poll finding 42% of Americans viewed the Israeli people negatively and 62% viewed the Israeli government unfavorably.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The reported IRGC strategy attempts to decouple US forces from Israel before a broader war by using economic pressure on Gulf transit and attrition of US missile stocks. If effective, it could reshape US regional posture and the credibility of its defense commitments, while signaling that Iran intends to manage escalation rather than absorb Israeli strikes on its western infrastructure. The analysis links IRGC actions to US domestic opinion and Israeli political leadership, raising questions about the sustainability of current military support.

Watch For

Monitor whether further IRGC attacks on US-linked sites in Gulf states, Jordan, or Iraq occur; whether the US launches additional strikes on IRGC targets; and whether shipping disruptions or insurance rate changes around the Strait of Hormuz are reported. Watch for any Israeli attack on Iran, IRGC missile or drone responses, and US statements on munitions stockpiles or force posture. Also note upcoming polling on US attitudes toward Israel and any diplomatic moves by Gulf states to distance themselves.