Sudan : Life slowly resuming in the capital despite fears of another attack

What Happened

After the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and allied forces recaptured the capital Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), at least 2 million of the approximately 5 million people displaced from the city have returned home, though the United Nations reports that fewer than 80,000 have come back to the city centre. The city remains heavily damaged from street-by-street battles that occurred in April 2023 when the RSF first swept through and again last year during the SAF's counter-offensive. Returnees face persistent power outages, water shortages, damaged buildings, and unpaid public-sector salaries. Some returns were forced by a crackdown on Sudanese refugees in neighbouring Egypt, according to the article.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The partial return of civilians to Khartoum suggests a fragile shift in the conflict's geography after the SAF's major military gains in the capital. However, the dire infrastructure conditions, ongoing insecurity, and secondary displacement from Egypt underscore that the crisis is far from resolved. The situation will test the SAF's capacity to govern and provide services, influence humanitarian access, and shape negotiations over Sudan's political future.

Watch For

Monitor whether the SAF can consolidate control, restore basic utilities, and pay salaries to encourage more returns. Watch for RSF attempts to retake territory or launch attacks on the capital. Track UN and humanitarian agencies' updates on conditions and the feasibility of large-scale returns, as well as any changes in Egypt's refugee policies. IPC food security assessments for Khartoum will be critical, as acute food insecurity likely persists.