Sudan conflict : El - Obeid under constant drone strikes blamed on RSF

What Happened

El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, is experiencing an intensification of drone strikes, with 27 recorded in June 2024, according to ACLED. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk reported that 15 of these strikes between 6 and 28 June resulted in at least 45 deaths and 41 injuries. The city, currently under Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) control, has been under siege-like conditions for 18 months, with strikes frequently targeting fuel stations, infrastructure, and residential areas. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been blamed for the drone campaign, though the group stated it is operating in compliance with international law and intends to protect residents.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

El-Obeid serves as a critical strategic node connecting the RSF-controlled western regions to the SAF-held eastern territories. Its status as a major military base and a hub for approximately 100,000 internally displaced persons makes it a focal point for the conflict's broader humanitarian and logistical stability. Analysts suggest that the RSF's ability to disrupt fuel and electricity supplies threatens to cripple the city's remaining infrastructure, potentially triggering a mass displacement crisis similar to that seen in El-Fasher.

Watch For

Monitor for potential large-scale ground offensives by the RSF, as analysts debate whether the current drone campaign is a precursor to a full-scale siege or a tactic to maintain isolation. Additionally, watch for further reports on the functionality of water and electrical infrastructure, as the degradation of these services could lead to a rapid deterioration in public health for the city's 500,000 residents.