Smotrich says US fighting Iran is ‘best for us’ and Israel will not join

What Happened

On Tuesday, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that the renewed US military campaign against Iran is ‘the best for us’ and that Israel will not join the fighting. Speaking at the Katif Conference for National Responsibility—a gathering promoting illegal Israeli settlements in Gaza—Smotrich argued that Israel’s ultimate goal is to ‘undermine and weaken the regime in Iran—to the point of overthrowing it,’ but that this should be achieved through economic pressure without Israeli direct involvement. The US and Iran restarted hostilities earlier this month after a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June to cease military operations and begin 60 days of negotiations was derailed; Israeli officials opposed the agreement and continued attacks on Lebanon, which was the deal’s first provision. Smotrich claimed Iran’s economy is collapsing, citing 85% inflation and a rial trading at 1.9 million to the dollar. Meanwhile, the US has suffered 17 military fatalities, at least 420 wounded, and over $100 billion in costs, according to the Iran War Cost Tracker.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Smotrich’s comments reveal a strategic calculus within parts of Israel’s government to let the US bear the military and financial burden of confronting Iran while Israel avoids direct entanglement. This stance risks perpetuating US-Iran hostilities and undermines diplomatic tracks, aligning with far-right Israeli objectives of regime change and settlement expansion in Gaza—policies that could further destabilize the region.

Watch For

Monitor whether Israel continues attacks on Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire deal, potentially provoking renewed US-Iran escalation. Watch for US domestic pressure due to rising casualties and costs, and whether the Trump administration pursues diplomacy despite Israeli opposition. Also track outcomes of the Katif Conference and any concrete steps toward Gaza settlement, as well as Iran’s economic indicators and retaliation cycles.