Since Islamabad MoU: What’s changed for the US, Iran and the Gulf?

What Happened

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the United States and Iran on June 17 in Islamabad has collapsed, leading to a resumption of direct military hostilities. For nine consecutive nights, the United States has conducted strikes against Iranian defense facilities and maritime capabilities. In response, Iran has engaged in tit-for-tat strikes targeting US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, including a reported strike on an aircraft at Aqaba airport. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of 17 US service members to date, with three fatalities occurring in the last 10 days, including two personnel killed in an attack on a Jordanian airbase and one in Iraq.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20 percent of global oil and gas transit, has triggered a sharp increase in crude prices and represents the most significant disruption to global energy supplies in modern history. The physical enforcement of a naval blockade by the United States and the subsequent Iranian retaliatory strikes have effectively ended the brief period of regional stabilization provided by the June MoU, threatening the economic diversification strategies of Gulf Cooperation Council states and exacerbating inflationary pressures within Iran.

Watch For

Monitor the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global energy markets and the potential for further escalation as the United States approaches the November 2026 congressional elections. Additionally, observe the operational status of regional civilian infrastructure, specifically power and desalination plants in Kuwait, and any further reports regarding the missing US service member following the attack in Jordan.