Russian fuel shortages bite – but will Putin change tack in Ukraine war?

What Happened

Russia is experiencing widespread fuel shortages, resulting in long queues at petrol stations in Moscow and other regions. The shortages are attributed to a combination of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and systemic distribution issues. In response, local authorities have implemented measures including fuel rationing, bans on the use of jerry cans, and the deployment of Cossacks in Anapa to maintain order at filling stations. The Kremlin has begun increasing fuel imports and subsidising prices to mitigate the impact.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The fuel crisis represents a significant escalation in the domestic impact of the war, as it directly affects the daily lives of Russian citizens and threatens economic growth. While Kyiv and some Western strategists hope this economic pressure will force a change in Kremlin policy, analysts suggest it may instead lead to increased domestic repression and continued aggressive posturing by the Russian leadership.

Watch For

Monitor upcoming economic statistics for July to assess the full impact of the fuel crisis on Russian growth. Additionally, observe whether the Kremlin implements further restrictive measures or price controls, and track any shifts in public sentiment as measured by both independent and state-run polling organisations.