Russian cities feel the pinch amid worsening fuel shortages

What Happened

Russia is experiencing widespread fuel shortages, with gasoline production reportedly falling by 25% year-on-year. This decline follows a series of long-range Ukrainian drone strikes targeting major oil refineries, which have damaged approximately one-third of Russia's refining capacity. The shortages have disrupted daily life across the country, including in Moscow and Siberia, leading to long queues at petrol stations, the emergence of a grey market for fuel, and the deployment of Cossack patrols to maintain order in southern regions. In response, Russian officials are reportedly considering fuel imports from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and India, as well as the temporary relaxation of fuel-quality standards.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The fuel crisis represents a significant shift in the war's impact on the Russian interior, challenging the Kremlin's narrative that the conflict has not disrupted normal life. By targeting critical energy infrastructure, Ukraine is imposing direct economic costs on the Russian population, which has contributed to a measurable decline in public support for the government and the war effort.

Watch For

Monitor the sustainability of Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian refineries and whether the Kremlin successfully secures fuel imports from regional partners. Additionally, observe if the fuel shortages lead to further economic contraction or increased public unrest in regions where supply disruptions are most severe.