Russia has ramped up ballistic strikes on Ukraine using repurposed S-400 missiles – Reuters

What Happened

Russia has intensified ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine using repurposed S-400 surface-to-air missiles, specifically RM-48U missiles originally designed as targets for air-defence crews, according to Reuters citing official Ukrainian data compiled by military analysts at the Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office. RM-48Us made up more than half of the 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired at Ukraine in July and early August: 87 of 158 strikes in July and 36 of 70 strikes in the first eight days of August, the data showed. In July Russia used the highest number of ballistic and hypersonic missiles in a single month since the start of the full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022. Meanwhile, the number of Iskander missiles fired fell to 38 in July from more than 100 the previous month, according to the Ukrainian data.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The surge in RM-48U strikes signals a strategic adaptation in Russia's long-range strike campaign. By firing large numbers of cheaper, less accurate target missiles, Russia may be trying to exhaust Ukrainian air-defence interceptor stockpiles while reserving more capable Iskander, KN-23, and Zircon missiles for a winter ballistic missile campaign, according to RUSI's Sidharth Kaushal. The shift also reflects production constraints and an effort to sustain strike tempo despite losses or limited stocks of precision weapons, while the RM-48U's average deviation of around 300 metres and wide fragment scatter raise concerns about civilian harm.

Watch For

Monitor future Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office monthly data on ballistic and hypersonic launches, especially whether the ratio of RM-48Us to Iskander, KN-23, and Zircon missiles shifts again as autumn and winter approach. Watch for Ukrainian and Western assessments of interceptor stockpile depletion and any new air-defence aid packages. Track Russian production figures against DIU's claim of over 480 RM-48Us planned this year, and watch for any changes in S-400 deployment sites, launch patterns, or reported damage caused by the missiles' 300-metre deviation.