Russia gains ground as France retreats: why Africa is shifting and Ukraine is under fire

What Happened

France has significantly reduced its military footprint in the Sahel between 2022 and 2025, withdrawing forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger while downsizing permanent bases in Chad, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, and Gabon. This withdrawal follows the collapse of the Barkhane counterterrorism operation and the rise of military juntas in the Sahel that have prioritized sovereignty and expelled French personnel. Concurrently, Russia has expanded its influence by providing security assistance, military training, and intelligence support to these regimes, transitioning from the private Wagner Group to the state-linked Africa Corps. In April 2026, jihadist and Tuareg forces launched coordinated attacks against Bamako and northern strategic sites, testing the efficacy of the current Russian-backed security model.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The shift in the Sahel represents a broader realignment of African security architectures, where regimes are increasingly prioritizing direct regime-security support over Western-led counterterrorism or governance-linked aid. The transition from Wagner to the state-controlled Africa Corps increases the Kremlin's direct accountability for security outcomes and human rights conditions in the region, while simultaneously challenging the traditional French sphere of influence.

Watch For

Monitor the security situation in Mali following the April 2026 coordinated attacks, as the ability of Russian-backed forces to contain jihadist and separatist groups will determine the long-term viability of the current security partnership. Additionally, observe whether France's new, smaller-scale defense relationships in Kenya and Benin successfully stabilize its regional influence.