Russia drops record number of glide bombs on Ukraine as casualties pile up

What Happened

In July, Russia deployed a record 8,300 glide bombs against Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s defence ministry. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed 42,800 Russian casualties in July, the highest monthly rate this year, with President Zelenskyy attributing 30,272 to drone strikes. Meanwhile, Ukraine renewed a 40-day air strike campaign on August 4, with the Security Service (SBU) claiming hits on 14 refineries, dozens of oil depots, 14 aircraft, and four airfields across Russia, including a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, the Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, and the Engels 2 and Saratov airfields. Ukraine launched approximately 10,000 long-range drones monthly, with Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin reporting 6,225 drones targeted the capital in July. The campaign severely disrupted Crimea’s power grid, leading to rolling blackouts, per Kremlin ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik. Ukraine also claimed to have sunk or disabled 206 Russian tankers and ferries in the Black and Azov seas. On the ground, the Institute for the Study of War estimated Russia captured only 37.85 sq km in July, compared with 455,000 sq km in July 2025, and has lost a net 183.5 sq km of Ukrainian territory this year. Russian forces continued infiltration tactics, particularly near Kostiantynivka, though many gains were reversed by Ukrainian defenders.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The record glide bomb use highlights Russia’s reliance on munitions Ukraine cannot adequately intercept, while Ukraine’s drone campaign is degrading Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure, with potential political pressure from Crimea’s energy crisis. The high Russian casualty rate and minimal territorial gains suggest eroding Russian offensive capacity, but the threat of a 500,000-reservist call-up in October, as warned by Zelenskyy, could shift the war’s trajectory and test Putin’s domestic support.

Watch For

Monitor the potential call-up of Russian reservists in October; the progress of Ukraine’s extended air strike campaign, particularly against remaining energy and military targets; the battle for Kostiantynivka and the effectiveness of Russian infiltration; and any retaliatory escalations or changes in territorial control.