One of Ukraine's key industries almost disappears from GDP

What Happened

Metinvest Chief Operating Officer Oleksandr Myronenko told Forbes Ukraine that Ukraine's metals industry, which accounted for up to 7% of GDP before Russia's full-scale invasion, may now contribute close to zero. He said only the Central and Northern mining and processing plants are operating, at about 50% capacity, producing iron ore pellets and concentrate for export to the EU. The Southern mining and processing plant is idle because seaports are effectively closed, and the Inhulets plant has been shut since 2024 due to high electricity prices. Myronenko said Russian strikes have effectively broken the production chain at Zaporizhstal, and restoring damaged equipment would cost tens of millions of hryvnias. Zaporizhstal halted operations completely after a Russian ballistic missile strike on 11 August; in late August Metinvest said it was not yet possible to determine when the plant could resume. In September, Zaporizhstal was hit by four ballistic missiles, with damage described as critical. GMK Center estimates the mining and metals sector accounted for 10.3% of Ukraine's GDP in 2021 and 5.5% in 2025, and mining and metals products accounted for 15.2% of Ukraine's total goods exports in 2024, worth US$6.2 billion.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The collapse of Ukraine's metals sector removes a major pre-war export earner and GDP contributor at a time when the wartime economy depends on foreign revenue. The near-zero GDP contribution described by Metinvest, combined with GMK Center's export figures of US$6.2 billion in 2024, shows how Russian strikes on energy and industrial infrastructure, seaport closures, and high electricity prices are degrading Ukraine's economic base beyond immediate battlefield losses. This also affects EU iron ore supply chains and Ukraine's longer-term reconstruction capacity.

Watch For

Monitor Metinvest announcements on whether Zaporizhstal can resume operations and the cost and timeline for restoring damaged equipment. Watch monthly Ukrainian steel production and mining and metals export data, especially from GMK Center, for further declines or recovery. Track any changes to Black Sea port access and electricity tariffs that could allow the Southern and Inhulets plants to restart. Also monitor further Russian strikes on critical industrial facilities and their impact on Ukraine's export capacity.