Oil prices hit three-month low and markets reach record high amid Iran deal breakthrough

What Happened

Global oil prices fell to a three-month low and stock markets rallied after US President Donald Trump announced a preliminary US-Iran peace deal that would end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump declared the deal “now complete” on social media, authorizing the “toll free opening of the Strait” and removal of the US naval blockade, with oil flow to resume after the deal is signed on Friday and mine removal. Iranian authorities said a 60-day negotiating period would follow to address Tehran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief. Brent crude dropped 5% to below $83 a barrel, and major indices like the Nikkei and Kospi rose 5%. Trump also claimed the US military had been secretly moving millions of barrels of oil daily through the strait. The Japanese Shipowners’ Association reported 38 Japanese-linked vessels still stranded, awaiting concrete information ahead of the expected 19 June signing in Switzerland.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The deal aims to resolve the energy supply crisis triggered by the halt of Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which removed about 20 million barrels per day—one-fifth of global supply—from the market. Reopening the strait would restore critical oil flows, ease inflation, and stabilize global markets. However, the preliminary nature and unresolved nuclear and sanctions issues introduce uncertainty.

Watch For

The peace deal is expected to be signed on 19 June in Switzerland; monitor for concrete timelines on strait reopening and mine clearance. The subsequent 60-day negotiation over Iran's nuclear programme and sanctions relief will be critical. Also watch vessel movements and market reactions to any delays.