'No safe options' for thousands sheltering in key Sudan city as RSF fighters advance

What Happened

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are intensifying military pressure on el-Obeid, a city in North Kordofan currently held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the city has become a critical refuge for over 83,000 displaced civilians, though humanitarian conditions are deteriorating due to a functional siege that has restricted supply routes and targeted infrastructure. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project reported a record number of RSF drone strikes on the city in June, while satellite imagery confirms the SAF is constructing defensive earthworks to fortify the perimeter. RSF leadership, including General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, has publicly ordered commanders to advance on the city, with verified footage placing paramilitary units within 40km of the urban center.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

El-Obeid serves as a strategic gateway connecting RSF-controlled territories in western Sudan with the military-held central and White Nile regions. The potential fall of the city threatens to replicate the humanitarian catastrophe observed in el-Fasher, where the collapse of SAF defenses led to mass executions and widespread displacement. The ongoing siege and targeting of supply lines further exacerbate acute food insecurity for the approximately 400,000 people residing in the city and its immediate vicinity.

Watch For

Monitor for further RSF ground movements within the 40km radius of el-Obeid, as well as the effectiveness of the SAF's newly constructed defensive berms. Additionally, track the status of the el-Obeid–Khartoum highway, which the SAF claims to have secured, and any further disruptions to humanitarian aid flights at the local airport.