New Gaza peace plan: Will US pressure Israel to accede?

What Happened

On August 4, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced a 15-point peace plan for Gaza, aiming to end the war that began with Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. The plan includes Hamas disarmament and Israeli military withdrawal. In July, Hamas agreed to hand over power to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) and subsequently pledged to surrender its weapons to the NCAG, marking its first acceptance of disarmament. Israel rejected the plan. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office stated the published version did not reflect Israel’s positions, and far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called it 'unacceptable' and demanded continued assassinations. Following Netanyahu’s meeting with the US-led Board of Peace on Monday, the sequencing was revised: Israel will now be required to withdraw only after Hamas is fully disarmed, abandoning the original phased approach. Trump has signaled willingness to pressure Israel, releasing the plan without prior Israeli consultation and hinting through a senior official that he would be 'very, very disappointed' if Israel refused.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The new peace plan represents the most detailed framework since October 2023, with Hamas’s unprecedented disarmament agreement removing a key obstacle. Trump’s unusual assertiveness toward Israel could reshape US-Israel dynamics, but Netanyahu’s electoral vulnerability and far-right coalition dependency make Israeli acceptance unlikely without tangible US pressure. Failure risks prolonging a war that has killed over 73,000 Palestinians and deepened the humanitarian crisis, while success could end a three-year stalemate and initiate post-war governance.

Watch For

Israeli elections in October, now less than 90 days away, will dominate Netanyahu’s calculus. Monitor whether Trump imposes concrete costs on Israel—such as restricting military aid or intelligence cooperation—if it continues to reject the plan. Also watch for reactions from Egypt and Qatar, who have mediated the deal, and whether Hamas’s disarmament commitments are tested as sequencing disputes persist.